There’s never been a more polarizing finale than “Made in America,” the last episode of The Sopranos. In the closing seconds, the screen cuts to black just as every member of Tony’s family has gathered in a diner. What just happened? The ambiguous final scene has sparked never-ending debate since its airing. The abrupt cut to black technique, followed by several seconds of silence, initially led many HBO viewers to think that their cable or DVR had malfunctioned at a crucial moment. When it emerged that this was the intended ending, some fans were disappointed, suggesting that David Chase and his team shouldn’t have concluded the mafia series ambiguously.
However, with time, everyone has come to admit that this was a genius move. Questions still remain about what happened, and Chase keeps adding to the confusion by alternating between confirming and denying that Tony Soprano died. At the moment, the following theories sound more convincing.
6. The ‘Michael Corleone’ Theory
A widely circulated theory involves the “Man in the Members’ Only Jacket.” In the show’s final moments, the mysterious person enters the diner and sits. He then glances at Tony before heading to the bathroom. According to many fans, this person comes back from the bathroom and shoots Tony Soprano, hence the reason the screen cuts to black.
Michael Corleone Does a Similar Thing in ‘The Godfather’
Fans lean on this theory because of the scene in The Godfather where Michael Corleone avenges his father’s shooting. During a peace meeting with the culprits (Captain McClusky and Virgil “The Turk” Sollozzo), Michael briefly excuses himself and heads to the bathroom, where he happens to have hidden a gun. He then comes back and shoots the two. The theory suggests that the “Man in the Members’ Only Jacket” hid a gun in the bathroom, too.
Even better, there’s a motive. In the Season 6 premiere (titled “Members Only”), Vito Spatafore mocks Eugene for wearing a jacket with a “Members Only” logo on it. Eugene later dies by suicide after Tony prevents him from moving to Florida. Presumably, the “Members Only” jacket represents a special gang that Eugene was associated with, so the members held a grudge against Tony.
5. A Robert Frost Reference Means Tony Survived
A recent theory popped up from the 2024 documentary, David Chase and The Sopranos, hinting that Tony’s alive and well. In the last episode, Chase references a scene that takes place in Season 3’s “Proshai, Livushka.” In it, Tony’s daughter, Meadow, helps her brother, AJ, with his homework, which involves analyzing the Robert Frost poem, “Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening.” Meadow asks, ‘What does snow symbolize?’ AJ responds, “Christmas?’” Meadow disagrees, saying ‘Hello! Cold? Endless white? Endless nothing? Death!’, to which AJ counters “I thought black was death!’
Wrong Color
Meadow is always the clever one between the two children, so her analysis feels more accurate. She is an overachiever, while AJ keeps getting poor grades. Indeed, the poem, which describes white snow several times, is about death, so there is no way a cut-to-black scene would mean that Tony was whacked.
With this revelation, Chase somehow confirmed that fans had been wrong all along. The series creator even ends the docuseries cleverly, with the words “The thing is…” before the screen cuts to black again. The lyrics of the closing song, seemingly telling the viewer “Don’t stop believing,” further back up the claim that Tony lives. Besides that, the Lupertazzi vs DiMeo war was over, so no one was actively looking to kill the mob boss.
4. Did Tony and Bobby’s Discussion Forshadow Tony’s Death?
A discussion between Bobby Baccalieri and Tony in Season 6’s “Soprano Home Movies” has been interpreted as a foreshadowing of Tony’s death. During their conversation, the two talk about “whacking culture” in the mob, and Bobby proclaims that “You probably don’t even hear it when it happens.” The scene where Gerry Torciano gets shot earlier in the series also plays out in silence, confirming that he indeed didn’t hear anything.
Words Have Power
Just like Bobby said, Tony, too, might not have heard it when it happened. Neither did the viewers. Why else would there be a flashback to Bobby’s remarks in the final minutes of “The Blue Comet”, the episode preceding “Made in America”? Bobby gets shot, so his words could be understood as a prediction of his fate, but for him, the entire execution is shown. Viewers hear and see it when it happens, which isn’t the case for Tony.
3. Oranges as Bad Omens
Tony has an obsession with oranges and orange juice. He argues with Carmela about it at some point, saying he likes “the one that says some pulp.” In addition to that, the DiMeo crime family boss is seen holding an orange at Carmela’s project house earlier in “Made in America,” and according to a section of fans, this is a sign of things to come.
Keep Off the Fruits
The orange juice theory is also extracted from The Godfather, and it holds a lot of weight, considering Tony had just bought orange juice before a failed hit on him earlier in the series. When an assassination attempt is made on Vito Corleone, he happens to be next to a grocery stall, buying oranges. When Vito later collapses and dies of health complications, he also happens to be holding an orange while making funny faces at his grandson in his garden. There’s more. Oranges are on the table at the meeting of the five families when the bosses get killed. Coincidence? Highly unlikely.
2. Dead or In Jail
In a few episodes of the HBO crime drama, Tony reminds his fellow mobsters that there are only two ways out for a Don: dead or in jail. He says this in Season 2’s “The Happy Wanderer” and the Season 4 premiere. Well, he is right.
The Trend Repeats Itself
On the show, two of the most notable bosses suffer one of either fate. Lupertazzi family boss Phil Leotardo gets brutally murdered while Johnny Sack goes to jail. Tony ought to be lauded for never spending a day in jail in the entire series. He was smarter than his fellow hoodlums, or maybe he was just lucky. Then his luck ran out in the final. Because there was no active investigation on Tony, he most likely didn’t get arrested. He got shot.
Tony’s claim is further backed by real-world history. From John Gotti to Carmine Galante, there is a long list of mob bosses who either ended up in jail or dead.
1. A Fate Worse Than Death?
Another major argument states that Tony lives, but his life is never the same. The future is dark, so the screen turns black. Key members of his crew have been wiped out, and he is left with one person whose loyalty was divided: Paulie. Tony’s sister, Janice, is still up to mischief as usual, and the mobster’s finances don’t look good either. Beyond that, it could be that the saga is simply over. Nothing is interesting on the horizon.
Nothing to Smile About
Indeed, fans could be overthinking. It’s likely that Tony simply has tough or boring days ahead, and that’s all there is. He is pretty sad, too. David Chase’s interview with The Hollywood Reporter somehow backs this theory.
“What was annoying was how many people wanted to see Tony killed. That bothered me. They wanted to know that Tony was killed. They wanted to see him go face-down in linguini, you know? And I just thought, “God, you watched this guy for seven years and I know he’s a criminal. But don’t tell me you don’t love him in some way, don’t tell me you’re not on his side in some way. And now you want to see him killed?”
Chase’s words suggest that he never thought of killing Tony. He thought audiences liked the character and wanted to see him, so watching everyone talk about whacking was somehow disappointing.
