CBS Begins The End Of An Era For NCIS

Warning! Spoilers ahead for NCIS season 23, episode 7, “God Only Knows.”NCIS begins the end of an era that lasted for almost two decades. After a brief hiatus due to the Thanksgiving holiday, CBS’ 2025-2026 TV cycle is now back in full swing as shows rapidly approach the midseason point of their storytelling. For its premier procedural, its comeback story involves getting to the bottom of the story of a NAVY Seal who survived captivity but may have committed a crime on his way back to the country.

As one of the longest-running shows on TV, only third to NBC and Wolf Entertainment’s Law & Order and Law & Order: SVU, the lore of NCIS is rich and deep. The flagship itself has spawned multiple spinoffs, three of them have released brand new episodes this year — NCIS: Tony & Ziva, NCIS: Sydney, and NCIS: Origins. Desite a slip in ratings in recent years, not to mention losing some veteran members of its cast like Leroy Jethro Gibbs, David McCallum, and Emily Wickersham, the show continues to be one of the most-watched cop shows on network TV.

This week’s case in itself is a typical mystery for MCRT. It’s an old-school Navy-focused case that is likely to be a one and done storyline. Admittedly, it’s a refreshing change of pace following a series of special episodes in NCIS season 23, which includes its first-ever crossover with NCIS: Origins and a very creative comeback for McGee’s Thom E. Gemcity. Despite the simpler case, however, “God Only Knows” kicks off the end of an era for the procedural.

Vance’s Change In Demeanor Hints At A Possible Changing Of The Guards In NCIS

CBS

There were already hints of it throughout the year thus far, but it’s finally fully acknowledged in NCIS season 23, episode 7, as Vance interrupts Parker’s interrogation of a chaplain. In their tense conversation, the MCRT leader sardonically repeats his boss’ management approach in recent months: “Tread lightly, Keep it low key. We don’t need bad press.”

This change in Vance’s leadership style was teased ahead of NCIS season 23’s premiere. Previously, he has always been very supportive of the team’s operations, albeit with some occasional guidance and reminders. While this may just be a part of Vance’s personal narrative, Gary Cole’s revelation (TVInsider) about what motivated the change in the Director’s demeanor hints that a bigger shake-up is coming. “There’s a lot of conflict going on with who’s going to stay in power at certain agencies, are different agencies going to change, stuff like that,” the actor said.

Vance trying to manage MCRT with a tighter leash could be his way of keeping them out of the change loop, so he could stay at the top of it. On the flipside, however, he might be getting the agency ready for an inevitable changing of the guards. Having been in Navy Yard for almost two decades and in NCIS for far longer, Vance has gone through a lot, both in his personal and professional arcs. His wife was killed as an accidental collateral and he drifted apart with his son (although they’ve already reconciled), but he remains steadfast in his commitment to the job.

That said, it won’t be surprising if he’s looking to finally retire after all these years. For what it’s worth, NCIS season 22 hinted at Vance’s retirement, when he candidly admitted to Parker that he had started thinking about how to spend his time and whom to spend it with. In the same episode, he became romantically involved with Lena Paulsen, the Deputy with Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND). There hasn’t been a major update about them, but it’s safe to assume that they are growing strong.

What The Potential End Of Vance’s NCIS Time Means For MCRT

When Vance was introduced in 2008’s NCIS season 5, episode 14, “Internal Affairs,” he was the Assistant NCIS Director who came to Navy Yard after the MCRT became under suspicion for the death of La Grenouille. FBI’s Tobias Fornell started grilling the agents, with the then-NCIS Director becoming the primary suspect in the case. It was clear then that Gibbs and Vance didn’t really see eye to eye on so many things, so the former officially assumed the position of Director on the heels of Jenny’s death, their relatonship became central to the series.

Much has happened to Vance and NCIS since then. He became one with the team, fully supporting them through all their endeavors but also functioning as a voice of reason when the squad got personal. He helped guide MCRT throughout major transitions, especially when Gibbs retired in NCIS season 21. It’s an understatement to say that losing him will be very difficult. Depending on how the writers want to tackle the aftermath of it, replacing him might result in a domino-effect change in the NCIS‘ main team as a whole. This will open up a particularly interesting narrative opprtunity when tackling McGee’s dilemma.

However, aside from potentially saying goodbye to Vance, NCIS is also looking to bid Rocky Carroll farewell, which adds a layer of emotion to this scenario. Aside from playing the fair but supportive director, the actor has also stepped behind the camera several times as a director. If Vance is truly retiring, hopefully Carroll can continue to be involved that way.